The coming 2012 election in the five states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa will be a historic battle for Bahujan Movement. It will be fought over the issue of whether Bahujan Samaj of Uttar Pradesh will vote for giving Behenji Mayawati her fifth term as the Chief Minister of India’s largest state or whether Bahujan Samaj of Uttar Pradesh will vote tactically for Total Revolution in the condition of Bahujan Samaj in all the states of our country through reservation in private sector.By making the right choice in this historic election, Bahujan Samaj will either achieve a Total Revolution as important as Babasaheb’s constitution or at best,be happy with another term for Behenji as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh for the fifth term. To have a clear understanding of the two choices, it will be essential to have a clear and open mind on Babasaheb’s vision for Bahujan Movement and the path that is taken by the BSP under Mayawatiji’s leadership.
The Congress Party had promised reservation in private sector for the Bahujan samaj which saw a greatly alarmed corporate India making hectic behind the scene moves for stalling it. After exhausting all channels for stalling this pro-Bahujan move, corporate India is now desperately supporting and keeping its hope on this "Upper Caste Uprising" called Jan Lokpal Movement whose modus operandi is to discredit and dislodge the Congress led UPA from power to prevent it from fulfilling its promise of private sector reservation. The recent scuttling of FDI in retail sector due to pressure from ally Trinamool Conress chief Mamata Banerjee clearly shows the vulnerability of the Congress led UPA when it comes to taking bold decisions. This also painfully highlights the tactical miscalculation that we had committed in using our votes to elect two dozen or so BSP MPs who are supporting the Congress led UPA from outside anyway. Had we transferred our votes to the Congress directly during the 2009 election, it would have led to a decisive mandate for the Congress and its poll promise of reservation in private sector. The only way to remedy this will be to give a clear mandate to reservation in private sector by tactically voting enmasse for the Congress. Despite its lack of sufficient madate, this will be a moral boost to the Congress led UPA to go ahead with its poll promise in the face of stiff resistance from all corners.
The only alternative choice other than this is to give our mandate for Behenji's fifth stint as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. We had witnessed four of her earlier stints and we need to ponder if her fifth term will be in any way different from her four earlier stints. Will she achieve miracles that she could not achieve in her four earlier terms with the decisive mandates ? Will BSP leaders and relatives continue to be the main beneficiaries of Behenji’s fifth stint as CM ? Will crimes against Dalits continue to soar even during her fifth term ? Will she start concrete programs for economic upliftment of Dalits atleast during the fifth term ?
There are too many questions that require indepth analysis but we may be spared with this trouble by the reality that even this rosy scenario is unlikely to happen if we are to consider the 2009 election where Minority communities had shifted alliance to the Congress. The Minority communities’ choice is likely to be the Congress again due to the implementation of 4.5 p.c sub-quota for minority communities. This can and is likely to ensure that all the BSP legislators we elect will sit in the opposition benches of Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha or end up supporting a Congress Government from outside yet again. This will be a very grim situation for Bahujan Samaj.
Behenji Mayawati seems to have realized this grim possibility and in a desperate bid for a fifth term, she has openly supported the Jan Lokpal Movement for fear of upsetting her sarvajan formula and to prevent sections of Bahujan voters from going to the Congress over the issue of private sector reservation. This is the darkest chapter in the history of Bahujan Movement. BSP under Mayawatiji’s leadership has clearly made a Himalayan political blunder by supporting the Jan Lokpal Movement and emerging as the biggest obstacle to Bahujan Movement. Every vote that goes to the Congress in 2012 will be a tactical vote for strengthening the Hand that promises Bahujan Sampoorna Kranti through reservation in private sector. Every vote that goes to the BSP will make the situation of Bahujan Samaj even more grim than it already is.
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